Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.. A N

In other words, to everyone."—The Economist"Tetlock’s work is fascinating and important, and he and Gardner have written it up here with verve."—The Financial Times“Superforecasting is the most important scientific study I’ve ever read on prediction.” —Cass R. In his brilliant new book, Tetlock offers a much more hopeful message, based once again on his own ground-breaking research. I noted, however, that social science has enormous potential, especially when it combines 'rigorous empiricism with a resistance to absolute answers.' The work of Philip Tetloc

Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business.  Dan Gardner is a journalist and the author of Risk and Future Babble: Why Pundits are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best. Philip E. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Expe

Jackal said More about superforecasters than about superforecasting. There are two kind of pop-science books; one deep and thoughtful based on years of research, one quick and dirty written by a ghost-writer. This book is of the latter kind. Tetlock wrote Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? about a decade ago. That book was deep and tho. This book has a 100% probability of making you think! Angie Boyter Everyone wants to be able to predict the future, whether they are buying stocks, choosing a mate, or deciding how the next presidential election will go, but what, if anything, can we do to improve our ability to predict? Wharton School professor Philip Tetlock has been studying that question. "I (Matt) have really enjoyed reading Super Forcasting" according to slpleslieanne. I (Matt) have really enjoyed reading Super Forcasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Phillip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It's a fun book for taking a dive into forecasting .I enjoyed reading about how forecasters related to weather, politics, stocks, etc. are often considered professio